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Astra net income decreased, so growth assumption changed

From the 2006 Financial Statement, PT. Astra International net income decreased from Rp5,457 bil to Rp3,712 bil. This is contributed by the decrease in sales growth in 2006 by -10.08%, while the growth in 2005 is 37.41%. The average growth between 2005 and 2006 is 13.67%.

It is good because Astra becomes more rational in determining growth in business. The 37.41% growth in 2005 can be considered as too much and theoritically in FCF valuation, high growth can drop the value referring the sensitivity analysis.

Therefore, Astra valuation in this blog needs to change the growth assumption to 15%.

Live-updated Value
Growth= 15.00%
BETA= 1.411115248
WACC= 19.56%
Equity value (in IDR ,000,000,000) = 56,282.57
Value per share (in IDR) = 13,902.58

last trade

ASII= 14,950.00
JKSE = 1,794.36
INDO-17= 6.073%